Marketing complimentary disruptive products using the network effect.

How do you get someone to buy a Blue Ray disk player if there are no Blue Ray movies available?  This is the dilemma when marketing disruptive complementary products.  No one wants to support a market until after the market has matured.  In network theory, this is called an indirect network and poses the biggest challenge when introducing new products.  Geoffrey Moore provides an excellent model in his book Crossing the Chasm where you focus on one segment of the market and then expand into other segments until you reach critical mass.  This post offers another solution using a network based approach.

In Crossing the Chasm, pragmatists look for the whole product which is really a strong network of third party components, a trained labor force and referenceable customers in the same industry.  Under the new model, instead of waiting for the entire network to be created with strong links, create weak links between the nodes of the network and then help strengthen the links until they are sufficiently strong.

Here is how it works.  Imagine a grape vine seedling symbolizing a growing network.  In the wild, it will grow in every direction looking for something to attach to.  The leaves may shade other leaves and the grapes will be difficult to harvest if they grow at all.  Once the vine has matured and the branches are strong, it is difficult to change the shape of the branches without damaging the vine itself.

This network grew without structure and will be impossible to correct.

Source: http://www.terryodell.com/editable_files/Africa2.html

To solve this problem wineries create a weak network structure using a stick and wires.  As the vine grows, it wants to follow the predefined network path.  The winery even cuts off the top shoot of the vine as it extends past the upper wire to encourage nutrients to go into the side branches.  With just a little bit of attention, the vine has grown into a well structured network that allows the plant to receive the most amount of sunlight and produce abundant fruit. In some case, you can even remove the trellis after the plant has matured because the vine or network will be strong enough to stand alone.

This network has grown following a predicted path.

Source: http://youngoakvineyards.blogspot.com/2008/05/young-oak-vineyards-vol-5-grafting.html

In business, you would use this model by creating weak links between the eventual players with little up front cost.  After each group sees that there is the potential for a strong network, a single event could trigger a chain reaction of adoption.

Here are the steps:

1. Identify all the constituents who would participate in the final network.  For the vine, this is determining the optimal sun and spacing between the plants.
2. Create weak links between all the parties so that everyone has visibility to the other players and what role they will play.  This can take the form of commitments based on a specific condition. The trellis serves as the path that the vine or network will follow.
3. Trigger an event that causes one of the commitments to be met.  When this condition is filled, the other players will join in causing a strong network to be created following the lines of the weak network.  In the case of the vine, plant the seed and water it.  The vine will follow the predefined network as it grows.

Here is an example of how this technique could have been used to help HD DVD win HD DVD/Blue-ray format war.

Step one is to identify the best content producers, player manufacturers and distribution channels.

Step two, go to the major content producers and ask them for a commitment to produce several titles if a specific milestone is met such as 100K HD DVD devices sold.  Next, go to the player manufactures and ask for a commitment to manufacture HD DVD players if a specific number of customers agree to buy the players.  Repeat the process with the distribution channels.

Next, announce to the public the titles and manufacturers that are committed.  Create a website that shows all the information in one place where people make a small deposit to buy a player at a defined price.  The deposit is returned if the 100K other people do not sign up.  People can also pre-order what title they want, showing the content producers exactly what titles have demand.  Also show who is willing to handle distribution.  To create referenceable customers, offer a bonus disk to people who sign up 10 of their friends and a free player to anyone who signs up 20 friends.

At this point, the titles are known, the distribution channel is in place, the hardware is identified and the customers have expressed demand.  No one has spent any money, but the network has defined nodes with weak links between the nodes.  The key factor is making sure everyone knows exactly what path they will follow and what to expect from the other players.  Now the question is, "who will blink first?"

In step three, you need some public kickoff event to create a chain reaction.  You could pass out disks for a major blockbuster on opening night or randomly start to ship players to the people who signed up the most peers.  Any event that exceeds peoples expectations should start the process.  In this case, just the fact that people are signing up should trigger the event.

Sample webpage that would show the weak links between nodes.

As the number of users increases, the strength between nodes also increase.

By creating weak links between nodes using a lattice structure, companies can lay the foundation for a network before the various parties have made major investments.  This technique should allow rapid adoption of disruptive products with mimal risk of backing a technlogy that will not get adopted.

How Google can make it easier to print maps.

Google Maps allow you to quickly zoom into a specific region and print out a map of where you are going.  Unfortunately you usually need multiple maps for a specific trip.  The first map shows you the detail of where you are going and the second map shows you how to get to the central region.  While this method helps get you to your destination it wastes paper because the two maps are usually only used once.

Imaging you live in Portland but you don't spend much time downtown and are unfamiliar with the region.  You are trying to get to the corner of NE 32nd and NE Klickitat near the intersection of NE 33rd and NE Freemont St. in the map below.  See the red X.  The first thing you will do is print out a detailed map of the city that shows the cross-street of your destination.

Detailed street view, X is the final destination.

Now you need to know how to get from the freeway to the city center so you print out the other map below.

Zoomed out view showing how to get from highway 84 but no detail at final destination.

Notice, that you don't print out a detailed map for the whole trip, only for the final cross streets.  The reason for this is that people need less information close to their house and more information as they get closer to a new destination.  On their way home, people don’t need as much information because they start to recognize the major streets and can take a number of possible routes.

To make maps that better reflect how people navigate, Google should use multipe scales on the same map.  Higher resolution at the final destination and less resolution further away.  See below.

Multi scale map that increases detail the closer you get to the final destination.

Notice that the zoomed in area is not just a higher resolution, but that it has a slope where it squezes the streets together on the sides.  This makes a blend between the two different resolutions.  In the area between the freeway and the Prospect Street, the side streets do not have names just like the zoomed out map above. Only when you get closer to your destination do the streets start to have names.  Of course, this is just a demonstration; the engineers at Google would be able to do a much better job.

Other people have explored the concept of multi scale maps but many of these solutions just put one map with greater detail over a map with lesser detail with no transition between the two.  When this is done, the more detailed section obscures some of the road leading to your destination.  The method proposed in this article has a smooth transition between the different regions.

By using blended multiple scales on a map, Google can create maps that better reflect how people navigate.  A zoomed out view for choosing freeways and a more detailed view closer to your destination. This will simplify travel by eliminating the need to flip between different pages as you are driving and will save paper and ink by requiring only one page to be printed.

How to use behavioral science to increase your product’s value.

Much has been written on the utilitarian concept of Form Follows Function and how Emotional Design can be used to create a bond between a product and its owner.  This article focuses on using behavioral science to modify your product such that the modification encourages behavior that is beneficial to the customer.

Behavioral design uses a stimulus to cause people to act in a predictable manner.  The red coils of an electric stove-top are one example.  The red color changes people’s behavior by causing them to keep their hands away from the coil.  Remove the stimulus and people will burn their hands.  To create value, this behavior must be beneficial to the customer not just the parent company.  In this case, it is beneficial to the customer to prevent burns.

Identify Customer Needs:
The first step in behavioral design is to identify the needs of your customers.  People don’t want to take airplane rides because they are fun.  They fly to get to a destination quickly so they can perform some other task.  Closets are not a storage location for clothes, they are a place where people create an image for others to see and select the appropriate protection from the elements.

How do customers use your product?
The second step is to understand how your customers interact with your product.  Do people turn the stove on before they place a pot or afterwards?  If you pick up an office phone with your dominant hand, then your weaker hand must dial the number.  Also pay attention to how people abuse your product.  Does the laundry basket get so full that the clothes do not fit into the washing machine causing people to overload the washing machine?  Is food left to rot in the bottom crisper drawers because people don’t see the food?  Do people leave old unread email in their inbox for several years?

Create Stimulus:
The third step is to include a stimulus that modifies the behavior in the second step that helps people meet the needs from the first step.  Putting a mark on the closet rod tells people when their closet may have too many clothes.

The stimulus can be created by using the following cognitive biases:

Default Heuristic:  People often accept whatever the default choice is.  To protect people from losses in the stock market, online brokerages should set a default stop loss.

Framing: Modifying the way the people view the world.  Showing people where to place a heater increases the efficiency of the heater.

Anchoring: Introducing a value that people use as a reference of normalcy.  Telling people to set their watches to the new timezone on intercontinental flight helps recover from jet lag quicker.

Eliminate Mental Calculations:  When people try to make a mental calculation, they are usually wrong.  Provide guidance that helps people make accurate calculations and therefore make better decisions.  If there is one inch of milk left in a milk carton, can I give my two children a glass of milk each at bed time and in the morning or do I have to go shopping tonight?

The important part about the stimululas is that is it should not have a significant impact to the cost of the product.  It should be something simple such as color coding, relevant information or a modified UI.  These are not engineering solutions.

By using cognitive design companies can improve the value of their products, increase differentiation and help customers meet their needs with very little increase in cost of the product.

How kayak companies can help your marriage.

Marriage is a complex partnership.  Two people agree to work together towards undefined goals for the rest of their life.  One of the most difficult parts of marriage is that it can be difficult to know when you are being successful.  Even when you have material wealth, there can be an emptiness in the relationship.  Communication is also critical.  When there is open communication, marriage is easy, but when the communication breaks down so does the relationship.  Marriage counselors try to rebuild this communication in order to get the relationship back on track.

Paddling a tandem kayak is also a complex relationship.  The person in the front sets stroke rate but the person in the back is responsible for steering the boat.  To complicate matters, the person in back can barely hear the person in front.  Both people must agree where to go and how fast to get there.  When you are out of sync with your partner, your paddles collide, the boat stops and yelling at each other does not solve the problem.  When things really break down, both people may end up swimming in very cold water.

This couple could not agree on their heading.  Now look at them.

Obviously, if a married couple cannot communicate on land, it is a bad idea for them to be in small boat where they must depend on each other.  However, this is exactly the market that kayak companies should pursue.

Here is how it would work.  Tandem kayak companies should first work with a marriage counselor to define a mini program on couples therapy including a list of communication do’s and don’ts.  After the program is defined, the kayak company should use framing to advertise the new program to troubled couples.  Call it kayak couples therapy.

The day of the trip, the guide would review the program and set expectations.  Communication guidelines and teamwork emphasis would be mixed in with paddling technique and discussions about the surrounding water.  Roles would be agreed to and goals set.  On the water coaching would fine tune the paddling technique and remind everyone of the ground rules.

This program would work because a tandem kayak is a controlled environment.  Initial conversation is limited to the task at hand.  By following the rules outlined ahead of time, people quickly begin to paddle in sync and the boat moves forward.  This teamwork creates instant gratification and evidence of success which can be difficult to observe in a marriage.  The couple quickly sees that when they communicate clearly and work together, they can be successful.

Evidence of success of clear communication.

By creating a couples kayak therapy program, kayak companies can offer more than a relaxing day on the water.  They can provide a controlled situation where couples practice their communication skills and receive immediate evidence of success of their collaboration.  After a couple realizes that they can work together on the water, the communication skills shared confidence can be applied on land.  The couple will also have an activity they can do together for a long time which is one of the reasons people get married in the first place.

Special thanks to Chris Young and Gloria Cotton of San Francisco Kayak & Adventures for the inspiration for this post.

This couple probably attended a marriage kayak therapy program.

How hospitals can help patients get to appointments on time.

Getting around a hospital can be very difficult. There are many signs that try to be helpful by showing strange names like Endocrinology (Hormones) and Otorhinolaryngology (Ear, Nose, Throat).  When you ask for directions, people often say things like “go the West side of the building”.  Without a compass, this kind of information is as helpful as directions in Venice that tell you to walk straight.

While doctors and nurses who work in the hospital may know their way around, it is very difficult for everyone else.  Most visitors to a hospital are there for the first time and a usually under a heightened state of stress and or pain.  Additionally after people are admitted to a bed, they have to give directions to friends and family to come visit.  This creates a blind leading the blind situation.

To solve this problem, most hospitals post maps around the building like this excerpt from the Stanford Hospital.

Map shows Stanford Hospital and Lucile Packard Children's Hospital

To get someplace, you look at the map, find the, “You are here sticker”, find where you are going from the list of strange sounding names and then figure out which way to walk.  After walking for a while you may recheck the map to make sure you are still headed in the right direction.  This whole process can take 10 minutes which is time you do not have when you are late for an appointment.  In communication theory, the process of reading a map is called decoding.  Most people do not encode maps quickly under stress.

Instead, hospitals should take advantage of people’s natural ability to follow a linear path and paint lines on the floor.  Instead of saying, “Go past Radiology, right at Endocrinology and left at Obstetrics” people would give directions by saying, “Blue Line 45”.

Here is how it would work.  A hospital like Stanford should paint lines on the floor similar to a subway.  The green line would lead to Cardiology while the yellow line would go to Labor and Delivery.  Colors that are difficult for people who are colorblind should be avoided.  In addition to the painted lines, a numbering system should be used similar to house addresses or freeway exits.  Zero should start at one end and then numbers for each yard should be used.  If one office is at zero, then the next office 21 feet away would be at 7.

Colored lines help you get around the hospital quickly.

When giving directions to someone, all you have to say is Green Line 79 and people would instantly be able to find the location.  The numbers will tell you if you have to go up or down the line and maps would show you where to transfer.  Each major entrance to the hospital would have a sign that shows you the shortest path to each of the lines from that entrance.

By adopting this numbered subway system, hospitals can make it easier for first time visitors to get around especially during a time of personal stress.  Not only would this make life easier for patients, but it would also cut down on unproductive time caused by late appointments.  This would also be helpful to suppliers, contractors and new interns would be able to reach their destination quicker.  Additionally, hospital staff would spend less time giving directions and could spend more time providing patient care.

How to keep your closet clean

Look in your closet.  Is it easy to find clothes on your hanger or do you have to push clothes aside in order to find what you are looking for?  If you have trouble finding what you want then your closet rod may be to blame.

Systems like factories or airports work more efficiently when they operate at a level below their maximum capacity to allow for minor disruptions.  A good example is major freeways.  Most freeways always have a spare lane on the right hand side.  If there is an accident during rush hour, the emergency crews can usually move the accident over into the spare lane on the side of the road and sort out the mess while traffic continues to flow.  This does not happen when there is no spare lane like in a bridge or tunnel.  If an accident occurs in one of these locations, traffic comes to a stand still until the accident is completely cleared.

Your closet is the same way.  When your entire closet rod is full of clothes, you can not push clothes aside to find what you are looking for.  You must judge a shirt or dress by the half-inch of cloth that is sandwiched between all the other items of clothing.  To pull a piece out, you must force open some space to get the item of clothing and as soon as you let go, the space is instantly filled.  You then have to fight to put the item back if you don’t want it.

This closet is at maximum capacity

In essence, your closet is operating at 110% efficiency.  There is no room for error and every time you want to see an item you must force open space. 

To solve this problem, closet rod manufacturers should give feedback about the capacity of your closet.  The can do this by adding a Red Zone to one end of the closet rod that covers 15% of the closet rod and the other 85% of the rod should be normal.  When you push all your clothes to one side of the closet rod, no clothes should be in the Red Zone.  If you do have clothes in the Red Zone, you need to clean out your closet. 

When your clothes enter the Red Zone, it is time to clean.

This way, when you are looking for an item of clothing there is more free space in your closet to move your clothes around and you will be able to quickly see the front of your clothes.  Additionally, you can quickly remove an item as well as put it back without fighting the other clothes.  The clothes that you enjoy wearing will be easy to get to and the clothes that take up space will be removed.

By adding a Red Zone to closet rods, manufactures can help your closet operate at an ideal 85% efficiency.  Not only will it be easier to take clothes out and put them back, but it will help you find your favorite clothes which is the whole purpose of a closet.

Special thanks to Jon Glommen for initiating this conversation.

How to stop dropping boxes.

Have you ever handed something heavy to someone and asked, "Do you have it?" and just as they say yes, they drop it?  The reason for this is that people usually wait for heavy things to be placed in their hands and then confirm verbally that they have it so the other person can let go. Unfortunately, as the first person starts to let go, the other person might not really have a good grip.

This miscommunication happens because the verbal feedback provided does not match the physical feedback.  If someone tells you they have the box and yet you are still carrying the weight, there is a mismatch and the potential for an accident.  To solve this, box companies should provide a logo that promotes the concept of "Lift to Accept".

Here is how it works.  When someone hands you a box, instead of saying "I have it", just lift the box out of the other person's hands.  The first person's hands will immediately drop away when you lift the box and there is no verbal confusion.  This works because the first person knows that you have the box because they no longer feel the weight in their hands.  Once this happens, they are left holding air and quickly remove their hands.  By placing the label below on boxes, box companies can eliminate the mismatch between verbal feedback and physical feedback.

Safety Benefits: Catching vs lifting.
In addition to the minimized confusion, there is also a safety benefit to this technique because people will be better prepared to support the weight.  When you are trying to catch something, you prepare for any possible events.  Your feet are ready to move, your knees are bent and springy and your arms are ready to help you run.  Think of a baseball outfielder trying to guess where the ball will go.  Their stance is optimized for movement, not for strength.

An outfielder preparing for anything.

When you lift, you focus on a single event.  You plant your feet, align your body and make sure that you have a good grip.  Think of a weightlifter focusing on a single lift.  They position their body for maximum strength.  This alignment of the body prepares you to lift heavy objects and can minimize injury by trying to carry something in an awkward position.  If you are picking something off a table, you use a lifting response, but if you are catching something, you use a contingency response.  In one case, you are being proactive and controlling the situation.  In the other case you are being reactive and hope for the best.  When you follow "Lift to Accept", you are positioning your body for maximum strength and personal safety.

Arnold is completely focused and in control

The "Lift to Accept" method uses non-verbal feedback as well as better prepares people to carry heavy objects.  By showing customers this method to pass items, box companies can help their customers minimize losses caused by dropped material as well as potentially reduce workplace injuries.

How to save time online.

Most people start their day in the office by reading the news online.  Each person may have a favorite site that aggregates the news   You read the lists of articles and then click on the link that you find interesting.  The problem is that on each news page there are multiple links to other sources of information.

You may start off reading a story about a river rising causing flooding and the page could have an add for river rafting trips.  You click on the link which takes you to a river rafting site.  Before you know it, you are looking at pictures from last seasons guided trips.  This causes you to waste time reading something that you were not interested in when you started to read the news.

A link may take you to interesting pages that are not important.

To solve this problem, browsers like Google Chrome should allow you to set up boundaries on what you read.  Here is how it would work.  You choose one or two sites that you want to read during the day.  Google Chrome should allow you to go to your favorite news sites and to follow links away from the news site.  As soon as you click on a link on the news article that would take you to a third page, the browser would delay the loading of the page by 30 seconds. If the link is really important.  You will read it.  If the link is not that important, you will probably have gotten back to work by the time the page opens.

Google Chrome prevents you from wasting time online.

By setting up the boundaries ahead of time, you make a promise to yourself before you have the temptation about clicking on something that would just waste your time.  This feature would ultimately save you time by limiting your Internet usage to just reading the news during working hours.  The same technique could be used for Facebook.  You could decide that you only want to spend 30 minutes on Facebook during the day.  A timer would keep track each time you log on and would tell you how many minutes you have left.  At the end of 30 minutes you have to wait until the next day to find out what your friends had for dinner.

How to design a car to make it look cleaner.

Have you ever pulled up behind a car and noticed dirty finger prints on the trunk of the car?  Most cars with lighter paint can accumulate a small amount of dirt without looking dirty.  It is only when some of that dirt is wiped off that you start to see how dirty the car actually is.

Without the fingerprints, this car would look clean.

The reason for this is that the human eye can detect contrast much better then it can detect absolute color shades.  Look at the image below.  If you cover the background with two pieces of paper, you will see that the middle bar is the same color from left to right.  The human eye perceives a change only in reference to other colors.

The eye can recognize contrast better than absolute colors.

When people touch a slightly dirty car, they scrape off some off the dust and create a contrast.  This happens to most cars where the back door lifts up.  Most people grab the bottom edge of the door when it is above their head leaving fingerprints.  To minimize the impact of this problem, car manufactures should add a design element like raised trim in a darker color to the bottom edge of the door.  When you reach up to close the door, you would only touch the trim piece instead of the solid color door.  This would prevent fingerprints wiping away some of the dirt and showing that the car is dirty.  Of course, the trim piece would be designed to match the overall style.

A black trim piece that people would touch when they close the door.

By adding this simple design element, a light color car will not have fingerprints on the back door when the car is dirty.  This will make the car look cleaner even when there is a slight layer of dust.  A clean looking car does not have to be washed as often thus saving people time.  Therefore, a small change to the design of the car will prevent busy people from having to spend their Saturdays waiting in line at the car wash.

Do you have any overdue library books?

The library is a great place to get access to books that you will read for a short time and do not want to buy.  This goes for both adults and children.  However, once you bring the library books home they have a tendency to get mixed in with your other books.  Many people spend more time looking for overdue library books then they spend actually reading the books.  Additionally, the late fees may be more then the book may have cost used on Amazon.

Can you find the library book?

The reason that it is hard to find a library book in your house is because it is difficult to tell the difference between a library books and your own books.  This is especially true when you are cleaning up after children.  Most library books have a small white sticker on the spine with the call numbers.  Hardly something that jumps out.  When you are looking for a particular overdue book, you do not want to look for a small white sticker just to find the missing book.

Instead, libraries should use a better visual system to identify their books.  One method would be transparent neon tape that is applied to the plastic cover that most library books have.  Another solution would be to paint the fore-edge (that is the edge of the pages opposite the spine, I had to look it up) a bright color.

The bright orange tape makes the library book stand out.

This way, instead of having to actively look for a missing library book, the book itself would stand out.  Whenever you see a pile of books your eye, would automatically see the library books and you would place these books in a special place.  Then you could always find the books when you are ready to read them or return them.

By increasing the visibility of library books, libraries would make it easier for people to find books at home reducing the number of late returns and reducing fines that people have to pay.  Then again, maybe libraries don’t mind if you return books late.