Friday, August 10, 2012
How to overcome the fear of writing
I clearly remember the first blog post that I wrote. I agonized for hours over what to write. I wondered how people would react. Each sentence was examined and re-examined. Throughout the entire process, fear prevented me from continuing. I am writing this post during a break between meetings and it takes me a tenth of the time. The biggest change that has happened is that I have already gone through the process of writing and posting blogs. I know what to expect and what to avoid but most importantly I eliminated the fear associated with writing a blog post.
I faced a similar situation writing my first book. I was not sure if it was good enough or how people would react. However, once I published the book on Amazon, Industrial Strength Techniques for Home Organization, I realized that my fears were unfounded. As I write my next book that will tie together much of the concepts from this blog, the writing process is much easier. Time is spent producing content rather than agonizing over thoughts.
Many of our fear come from not knowing what will happen and our imagination creates dangers that are far scarier than reality. Once we have gone through the experience once, we realize that most of our fears were unfounded. Entrepreneurs also must go through the fear cycle. The first customer pitch, the first VC meeting, the first hire. All of these events become second nature after having experienced them once.
The trick then is to get people over the initial hurdler of an experience so that they can move on and accomplish great things.
With this in mind, how can companies like Amazon help people overcome their fear of writing?
Soft Launch: One technique is to use a staging area where people can publish their work without exposing it to the world. This is typically used for technical reasons to help people correct errors but it should also be used to help people overcome the initial fear of uploading their first work. The soft launch would allow people to share their work with a small group of friends minimize the fear of public scrutiny that may stifle the creative process.
Priming: The second technique uses priming. When people describe how they are going to perform an action ahead of time, they are more likely to follow through with that action. Amazon could help people create a schedule for writing the book. To help break the project into smaller parts, people could upload individual chapters according to the schedule that they created.
Offer a Mulligan: In golf, it is not uncommon for people to mess up their drive on the first tee. A Mulligan is a do over and the second shot is usually much better. Amazon should encourage first time publishers to create a smaller book or a collection of short stories. Once people have the confidence of publishing one book, they can move on to writing their epic novel.
By understanding that first time writers often need help overcoming the fear of writing,
Amazon can take steps to minimize this fear and lay the seeds for the next great novel.
Thursday, August 9, 2012
How to add more value by doing less
I was listening to Rory Sutherland on Ted Talks and he mentioned Professor Ayelet Fishback and her work on the dilution model: How additional goals undermine the perceived instrumentation of a shared path.
Here is a link to the paper: The Dilution Model: How Additional Goals Undermine the Perceived Instrumentality of a Shared Path.
In summary, this model states that if a product or service performs multiple tasks, people have a perception that the ability to perform any one of the tasks well is diminished. The paper states the example of a coffee shop that serves both coffee and sandwiches. Sure people may have a need for both coffee and sandwiches and it would save people time if they could buy both at the same place. The problem comes when you ask people about the quality of the coffee. Research shows that since the café does not specialize in coffee, people will say the coffee is not as good as specialty coffee shops despite actual quality.
This same pattern is played out in many other multi function areas. Mr. Sutherland gives the example of the TV with built in DVD player. No matter what the technical specs say, people will think that the combination unit must have inferior quality to stand alone units and will thus buy the parts independently. One explanation for this bias is that people may belive that compromises are made in the design that would impact quality. Mr. Sutherland also uses the example of Google Search. Instead of adding the weather and news, Google Search does one thing only and this increases people’s perception of the ability to do that.
Of course a discussion like this is not complete without dragging in the leaders of minimalism; Apple. If you look at the early iPods you will notice that they all had limited functionality but did it very well. In fact, latter versions such as the shuffle actual removed features thereby possibly increasing the perceived quality of music play back.
It is important to note that context for a product should not be ignored. Ludwig von Mises states that it is impossible to tell the difference between the value created by the food and the value created by sweeping the floor. In the example of the coffee shop, eliminating sandwiches would increase the perceived quality of the coffee but the ambiance of the café must also be considered.
So how can the concept of goal dilution be applied to improving product value? The first step is to try not to be all things to all people. Minimize the product features to the core functionality that reflects the strength of your company. Next understand the ecosystem within which your product operates and try to fit into that ecosystem as easily as possible. If you make DVD players understand that you need to connect to a TV to work. In order to simplify that process, why not accept the fact that not everyone has access to the back of their stereo system and put the connections on the side. If you are a coffee shop, make sure you are located next to a complimentary product such as bagels.
Here is a link to the paper: The Dilution Model: How Additional Goals Undermine the Perceived Instrumentality of a Shared Path.
In summary, this model states that if a product or service performs multiple tasks, people have a perception that the ability to perform any one of the tasks well is diminished. The paper states the example of a coffee shop that serves both coffee and sandwiches. Sure people may have a need for both coffee and sandwiches and it would save people time if they could buy both at the same place. The problem comes when you ask people about the quality of the coffee. Research shows that since the café does not specialize in coffee, people will say the coffee is not as good as specialty coffee shops despite actual quality.
This same pattern is played out in many other multi function areas. Mr. Sutherland gives the example of the TV with built in DVD player. No matter what the technical specs say, people will think that the combination unit must have inferior quality to stand alone units and will thus buy the parts independently. One explanation for this bias is that people may belive that compromises are made in the design that would impact quality. Mr. Sutherland also uses the example of Google Search. Instead of adding the weather and news, Google Search does one thing only and this increases people’s perception of the ability to do that.
Of course a discussion like this is not complete without dragging in the leaders of minimalism; Apple. If you look at the early iPods you will notice that they all had limited functionality but did it very well. In fact, latter versions such as the shuffle actual removed features thereby possibly increasing the perceived quality of music play back.
It is important to note that context for a product should not be ignored. Ludwig von Mises states that it is impossible to tell the difference between the value created by the food and the value created by sweeping the floor. In the example of the coffee shop, eliminating sandwiches would increase the perceived quality of the coffee but the ambiance of the café must also be considered.
So how can the concept of goal dilution be applied to improving product value? The first step is to try not to be all things to all people. Minimize the product features to the core functionality that reflects the strength of your company. Next understand the ecosystem within which your product operates and try to fit into that ecosystem as easily as possible. If you make DVD players understand that you need to connect to a TV to work. In order to simplify that process, why not accept the fact that not everyone has access to the back of their stereo system and put the connections on the side. If you are a coffee shop, make sure you are located next to a complimentary product such as bagels.
Monday, July 2, 2012
How to build a software product roadmap.
One of the biggest challenges of software development is trying to decide what features to add to particular version. Here is a new model that will help you build a software product roadmap by considering the activities of the expected user group. This model focuses on two dimensions of activities, the duration or time to complete the task and frequency or how often a task is performed. Other dimensions such as task importance will be ignored for now as this model is focused on increasing worker productivity.
Typical Tasks of an MRP system
As you can see some tasks are performed frequently while others are rare but have a long duration However, each of these tasks require resources and are an expense for a company. Minimizing the time to accomplish these tasks will create value for a user and free a user up to focus on more strategic tasks.
It is important to make the distinction between user tasks and product functionality. This model is focused on where users spend their time without your software. Once the software is adopted, many tasks should decrease in duration and frequency. At that point, new tasks will emerge as users focus on new challenges.
Once you have identified where your target users spend their time, the next step is to plot the tasks on the chart similar to the graph above. Next, create a 45 degree line in the upper corner and then move the line to the lower corner based on the version of the software. Tasks above the line should be included in a particular version. Tasks below the line are reserved for future versions. Each task should then have an associated feature that will help the user minimize the time it takes to perform the task.
This method ensures that you can provided the maximum productivity gains to users with the minimal engineering resources. There is no sense in adding a feature if it does not solve a problem that the user encounters infrequently or can be done very quickly.
Product Roadmap that is based on where users currently spend their time.
One thing that becomes obvious in this model is the law of diminishing returns for software functionality. After several versions, you have simplified the majority of the users tasks and it is harder to show value. Microsoft Word is a good example of this. The majority of tasks such as cut and paste, spell check, grammar correction and bullets/numbers were released in earlier versions. All the future improvements are related to tasks that are done infrequently and have a short duration.
By using this model, you can focus your engineering resources on the biggest problems your customers are facing. Additionally, this model provides a framework for discussing the activities of the users that is much better than creating a list of what you want the software to do. If someone tries to add some functionality that is ahead of the version curve, you can give justification on why to hold off on the feature since it is ahead of the version curve. Similarly, if any tasks is being performed by the customer is behind a particular version curve, then you need to make sure that the task is included in the next version.
Thursday, June 7, 2012
What is Cozy?
I was recently looking for the modern replacement of the the Volkswagon camper van. I considered the Mercedes Sprinter, the Nissan NV, truck campers and truck shells. Somehow, nothing seemed to give the same feeling as the VW bus and I couldn't understand why. The only conclusion that I can come up with is that the VW bus is cozy while the other solutions are either too big or too small.
Above is a classic Volkswagon camper bus. Notice that the average person cannot stand up straight when they stand inside without the pop-top. When you stand near the doorway, you can see the entire inside of the bus. There is very little room to move around inside and yet the doors seem to invite you in to sit down at the table to eat.
Now look at the Dodge / Mercedes Sprinter Camper Van. It is easy to stand up inside and walk around. Large windows let you easily see the world. Sure, the van is much more comfortable but is it inviting?
Another classic is the truck camper that allows you to stand up, sleeps four and includes many of the comforts of home such as sink, fridge and stove. However the scale is much larger compared to a person. You need to climb up the stairs to get in. When you stand next to the camper, you can not reach the top or see inside the windows.
Each of the above solutions have their purpose. Truck shells and campers can be removed in the off-season while motor homes always include a kitchen sink but are they cozy?
I talked to a friend of mine who used to travel by overnight train with his family in India. He said that the sleeping compartments where quite tight and that you shared the compartment with several other families. Despite the close quarters, he met several lifetime friends on those trips and looks fondly back at those days.
One explanation for the benefits of the cozy effect is the concept of physical proximity and the Mere Exposure Effect (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mere-exposure_effect). This states that people form stronger relationships when they have more frequent interaction with something or someone. If you have ever spent time in a VW camper bus with other people, you know that it is impossible to move without bumping into someone else. Of course the truck camper shell takes this idea to the extreme but there must be some limitation on how close you want to be next to someone on a continual basis.
If we are to assume that people value human interaction and that close proximity encourages human interaction, then we should also assume that people would value an environment that encourages interaction, hence our attraction to cozy.
The next step is to identify some key elements that contribute to cozy. I propose the following:
Elements that create a cozy environment:
Classic Volkswagon Camper Bus
Above is a classic Volkswagon camper bus. Notice that the average person cannot stand up straight when they stand inside without the pop-top. When you stand near the doorway, you can see the entire inside of the bus. There is very little room to move around inside and yet the doors seem to invite you in to sit down at the table to eat.
Dodge / Mercedes Sprinter Camper Van
Classic Truck Camper
Another classic is the truck camper that allows you to stand up, sleeps four and includes many of the comforts of home such as sink, fridge and stove. However the scale is much larger compared to a person. You need to climb up the stairs to get in. When you stand next to the camper, you can not reach the top or see inside the windows.
Fully outfitted truck shell camper
Truck shell campers like the one above offer far less space but easily fit onto most trucks.
I talked to a friend of mine who used to travel by overnight train with his family in India. He said that the sleeping compartments where quite tight and that you shared the compartment with several other families. Despite the close quarters, he met several lifetime friends on those trips and looks fondly back at those days.
One explanation for the benefits of the cozy effect is the concept of physical proximity and the Mere Exposure Effect (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mere-exposure_effect). This states that people form stronger relationships when they have more frequent interaction with something or someone. If you have ever spent time in a VW camper bus with other people, you know that it is impossible to move without bumping into someone else. Of course the truck camper shell takes this idea to the extreme but there must be some limitation on how close you want to be next to someone on a continual basis.
If we are to assume that people value human interaction and that close proximity encourages human interaction, then we should also assume that people would value an environment that encourages interaction, hence our attraction to cozy.
The next step is to identify some key elements that contribute to cozy. I propose the following:
Elements that create a cozy environment:
- Ability to see entire space.
- Roof height that is close to head level.
- Forced proximity to other people.
- Shared experience.
- Little empty space.
- Entrance way that starts wide and then narrows.
By incorporating these elements in automobiles or communal spaces, companies can create a feeling of coziness that customers value and are attracted to. Once the space has been created, people will fill the space and create interactions far beyond what the company could have offered through product features.
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
Can you identify the Truncation Effect on your incomming inspection?
A friend of mine, Jon Glommen, was asked to review a chart similar to this during an interview for a quality position.
The histogram showed the incoming inspection data for a large number of parts from a supplier (100% inspection). The curve was supposed to illustrate how each part was built to spec and show that the supplier had no quality issues. Mr. Glommen then informed the interviewer that the curve was only showing half of the picture and that the supplier was actually producing a large number of nonconforming parts which were scrapped and these costs were being passed on to the customer.
Jon noticed that the curve represented only a portion of a normal distribution. The supplier was measuring each part at final inspection and only shipping the parts that met the required dimensions. The remaining parts were either reworked or scrapped, both of which increased costs and delayed delivery. Removing nonconforming data points and only showing the data that meets the specification is called the Truncation Effect.
The curve in the above picture was generated using a random set of data with a mean of 100 and standard deviation of 5. In this theoretical example, I have set the lower spec limit at 92 and upper spec limit at 108. This is the same as removing approximately the lower 5.4% and upper 5.4% of the curve. In other words, the supplier would have to produce 111 parts in order to ship 100 parts. This increases both the lead time and cost by 11%.
The histogram below is another view of the same set of data adding back the parts that the supplier had removed.
This chart clearly shows the long flat tails that are typical of a normal distribution. Using a statistical software application (JMP), I have added the theoretical normal distribution curve. In this case, the mean is 100 and the calculated standard deviation is 4.97. Notice how the curve closely matches the data set in this example.
Next, I calculated the distribution for the incoming inspection excluding the truncated data points. The stats software calculated the same mean of 100 but a lower standard deviation of 3.88. Below is the calculated normal distribution curve overlaid on the incoming inspection data.
Notice that the center of the calculated curve is higher than the center points and that the edges of the curve are lower than the data points.
One method to check for the Truncation Effect is to use Process Capability Analysis. Here is a quick overview of Process Capability Analysis. The standard formula for Process Capability is Cp = (USL - LSL)/(6* sigma). The Cp for the truncated data = (108-92)/(6*3.88) =0.68 which is less than 1. This tells us that the spec width is smaller than the process width and that the supplier is producing nonconforming parts.
Why is it important to look for the Truncation Effect?
If all of your parts pass incoming inspection, you may believe that your supplier is producing high quality parts. However when you use a histogram or Process Capability Analysis on the data you may find that your supplier is achieving the high quality by removing the non-conforming parts.
Next Steps
First, if you have observed that inspection and/or test has resulted in rework or scrap, or the distribution of incoming material indicates that truncation is occurring, then it is important to work with your supplier to identify why parts are being reworked or scrapped and to help your supplier eliminate this waste.
Second, an accurate test is needed to determine if there is evidence of truncation. One test might measure the number of points above 10% of the lower spec limit. If you see a large percentage of points near the cutoff, it may indicate that there is hidden waste. If you have a large amount of data, if truncation is occurring it should be pretty obvious.
Third, a method is needed to estimate the true mean and standard deviation of the population in the presence of truncation. To get this information we need to have the supplier report first time yield and final yield. In addition we need to know the test or inspection results (i.e., measurement results not just pass/fail) of all units which were sampled.
In conclusion, incoming inspection of parts from a supplier may only show that the supplier only delivers parts that meet your requirements. Further analysis is needed to determine if your supplier has hidden waste that they are containing internally. By working with your supplier to help minimize this internal waste, you will speed up delivery and reduce costs the of your parts because the overall yield of the supplier's process will increase.
Note: For further reading, learn about Process Capability Analysis http://www.qimacros.com/qiwizard/process-capability.html
Incoming Inspection Data for Large Number of Parts
Jon noticed that the curve represented only a portion of a normal distribution. The supplier was measuring each part at final inspection and only shipping the parts that met the required dimensions. The remaining parts were either reworked or scrapped, both of which increased costs and delayed delivery. Removing nonconforming data points and only showing the data that meets the specification is called the Truncation Effect.
The curve in the above picture was generated using a random set of data with a mean of 100 and standard deviation of 5. In this theoretical example, I have set the lower spec limit at 92 and upper spec limit at 108. This is the same as removing approximately the lower 5.4% and upper 5.4% of the curve. In other words, the supplier would have to produce 111 parts in order to ship 100 parts. This increases both the lead time and cost by 11%.
The histogram below is another view of the same set of data adding back the parts that the supplier had removed.
Histogram including truncated parts
Next, I calculated the distribution for the incoming inspection excluding the truncated data points. The stats software calculated the same mean of 100 but a lower standard deviation of 3.88. Below is the calculated normal distribution curve overlaid on the incoming inspection data.
Calculated Normal Distribution overlaid on data with the Truncation Effect
Notice that the center of the calculated curve is higher than the center points and that the edges of the curve are lower than the data points.
One method to check for the Truncation Effect is to use Process Capability Analysis. Here is a quick overview of Process Capability Analysis. The standard formula for Process Capability is Cp = (USL - LSL)/(6* sigma). The Cp for the truncated data = (108-92)/(6*3.88) =0.68 which is less than 1. This tells us that the spec width is smaller than the process width and that the supplier is producing nonconforming parts.
Why is it important to look for the Truncation Effect?
If all of your parts pass incoming inspection, you may believe that your supplier is producing high quality parts. However when you use a histogram or Process Capability Analysis on the data you may find that your supplier is achieving the high quality by removing the non-conforming parts.
Next Steps
First, if you have observed that inspection and/or test has resulted in rework or scrap, or the distribution of incoming material indicates that truncation is occurring, then it is important to work with your supplier to identify why parts are being reworked or scrapped and to help your supplier eliminate this waste.
Second, an accurate test is needed to determine if there is evidence of truncation. One test might measure the number of points above 10% of the lower spec limit. If you see a large percentage of points near the cutoff, it may indicate that there is hidden waste. If you have a large amount of data, if truncation is occurring it should be pretty obvious.
Third, a method is needed to estimate the true mean and standard deviation of the population in the presence of truncation. To get this information we need to have the supplier report first time yield and final yield. In addition we need to know the test or inspection results (i.e., measurement results not just pass/fail) of all units which were sampled.
In conclusion, incoming inspection of parts from a supplier may only show that the supplier only delivers parts that meet your requirements. Further analysis is needed to determine if your supplier has hidden waste that they are containing internally. By working with your supplier to help minimize this internal waste, you will speed up delivery and reduce costs the of your parts because the overall yield of the supplier's process will increase.
Note: For further reading, learn about Process Capability Analysis http://www.qimacros.com/qiwizard/process-capability.html
Monday, May 7, 2012
How to Eat Less
Do you finish all of the food on your plate or are you able
to stop eating even if there is still food left? Chances are, many people will not stop eating
until all the food is gone no matter how much is on the plate. This action is logical in some cases. Many people who grew up during the depression
did not know when they would receive their next meal therefore they would eat
all the food on their plate. Other
people are members of the Clean Plate Club because as children, their parents
spoke of the starving people in other countries. Luckily, food scarcity is less of a problem these
day and restaurants will often serve more food than the average person should
eat in a typical sitting. So why do you
still finish all the food even if you know when the next meal is coming from
and how do you limit your eating to prevent weight gain?
The answer may lie in a behavioral bias called the Endowment
Effect which causes people to place a higher value on things that they
posses. The Endowment Effect states that
people will demand more for an object that own than they are willing to pay for
that same object. In other words, if I gave
you a mug as a present, you would only be willing to sell that mug for a higher
price than you would be willing to buy it for.
In the case of eating, it may be, that people are unwilling
to give up the food on their plate because they feel it is theirs even when
they know that they should not eat all of the food.
To break this cycle, you need to be willing to give up some
food on your plate. Of course it would
be impolite to take food off of your plate and put it someplace else on the
table. However the following plate
design would serve a similar purpose.
To eat less, just push some food on your plate into the "For Later" section.
At some point in your meal, simply push some food into the portion
of the plate that says “For Later”. The
phrase can be interpreted different ways.
For some people, it could mean that they want to bring the extra food
home in a doggy bag for a snack at home.
For others it could mean that the food they do not eat today does not
increase their weight later. Another way
to view it is to give your body a chance to digest the food that you are
currently eating before eating more. Often
times, the feeling of satiation or fullness takes a while to kick-in after a
meal. Pausing during the meal gives your
body time to register the food you have eaten and you will find that you are
really not that hungry for the remaining portion. Either way, by pushing the food away from
you, you are overcoming the Endowment Effect thereby gaining control over how
much you eat.
The amount of food that you push away is not important. In the beginning, it feels very strange, but
with time, it becomes second nature. When
using this technique, you will find that you leave the table with a feeling of
lightness rather than heaviness. See a
related post on ways to make you feel better after eating: http://latentvalue.blogspot.com/2010/11/how-restaurants-can-increase-value-of.html.
By designating a portion of the plate for later, people
would more comfortable not eating all of the food on their plate creating a healthier
balance between caloric intake and caloric needs.
Note: There can also
be other variations on what is written on the plate. You could show a cute monsters mouth or say
something like “Feed your Willpower”.
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Wagon Ruts of the Web
Imagine that Google had discovered the ideal search algorithm and every search returned the best content from the web. This ideal algorithm would be based on a larger number of factors including back links, how long people stayed on a page, how long the page has existed and the relevancy of the content. Under the ideal model, it would seem that each time a page was visited, the page would become even more solidified as the proper results for a particular search term. This action would be equivalent to creating wagon ruts in the internet. People continue to travel down the same path and that path becomes self fulfilling forcing people to travel in that path.
Unfortunately, while the algorithm was ideal and gave the best results for your search query, it would be very hard for new sites to get a better ranking since rankings would be based partly on historic data. In some cases, the wagon ruts would be accepteble. Suppose you searched for "official IRS website". In this case, the first result should be www.IRS.gov. However, if you searched for, "favorite song in Canada", you might be taken to a page that lists the most popular songs but would this be really relevant to you? The context would determine how relevant the results were. It is very likely, many different people have an opinion about the best song in the country and it is up to the searcher to further sift through the different pages.
It seems then, that search is a mix of exact matches and some not so exact matches. The results for, "restaurants within 1 block of 1800 Union St" would fall into a wagon rut only changing when a restaurant physically went out of business or a new one opened. However, searches for, "best restaurant within 1 block of 1800 Union St", should return a a more open path result. The campus map below shows many paths across a campus. It is very likely, that people often leave the path and look for a direct route that meets their immediate needs.
YouTube shows evidence of wagon ruts. Here is an example of a search for, "golf swing" taken two days apart. Are these the absolute best results in the world for golf swing? The only difference between the two results is the second ad. The first ad is the same in both results.
Research has been done that shows that wagon ruts are not only a result of technology but also are the result of social behavior. In a study titled "Experimental Study of Inequality and Unpredictability in an Artificial Cultural Market", http://www.filosofitis.com.ar/archivos/experimentalmarket.pdf Matthew J. Salganik, Peter Sheridan Dodds and Duncan J. Watts showed that wagon ruts can also be created when people are influenced by other peoples choices. When people were asked to rank different songs, people gave a higher ranking to songs that other people liked. This causes some songs to rise to the top of the charts only because they happened to get some sort of initial push.
So how could Google or Bing improve their search results? To improve the results, search engines should combine a mix of wagon ruts and open paths in their search results. The wagon ruts would be helpful when people are looking for exact information that has a defined source. The open paths would be used to introduce new possible results that might meet the users' requirements. Over time, if the open path results are useful, they would upset the wagon ruts and become wagon ruts themselves. This continuous testing would allow new ideas to be introduced without creating too much chaos in the results.
By mixing up wagon rut results with open path results, Google would present a broad result set that would help a rational person find the specific information that the person is looking for.
An example of wagon ruts worn into rock.
Does search fall into the same trap?
It seems then, that search is a mix of exact matches and some not so exact matches. The results for, "restaurants within 1 block of 1800 Union St" would fall into a wagon rut only changing when a restaurant physically went out of business or a new one opened. However, searches for, "best restaurant within 1 block of 1800 Union St", should return a a more open path result. The campus map below shows many paths across a campus. It is very likely, that people often leave the path and look for a direct route that meets their immediate needs.
There are many paths that let you cross this campus.
YouTube shows evidence of wagon ruts. Here is an example of a search for, "golf swing" taken two days apart. Are these the absolute best results in the world for golf swing? The only difference between the two results is the second ad. The first ad is the same in both results.
YouTube search results on 4/9/12 and 4/10/12.
The only change is the second add.
When searching YouTube, people are not usually looking for a wagon rut result. They usually are looking for something new and interesting. The one exception to this is when people are trying to find the original version of a video that has many parodies (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrfUXuBaJ1E&feature=youtube_gdata).
Research has been done that shows that wagon ruts are not only a result of technology but also are the result of social behavior. In a study titled "Experimental Study of Inequality and Unpredictability in an Artificial Cultural Market", http://www.filosofitis.com.ar/archivos/experimentalmarket.pdf Matthew J. Salganik, Peter Sheridan Dodds and Duncan J. Watts showed that wagon ruts can also be created when people are influenced by other peoples choices. When people were asked to rank different songs, people gave a higher ranking to songs that other people liked. This causes some songs to rise to the top of the charts only because they happened to get some sort of initial push.
So how could Google or Bing improve their search results? To improve the results, search engines should combine a mix of wagon ruts and open paths in their search results. The wagon ruts would be helpful when people are looking for exact information that has a defined source. The open paths would be used to introduce new possible results that might meet the users' requirements. Over time, if the open path results are useful, they would upset the wagon ruts and become wagon ruts themselves. This continuous testing would allow new ideas to be introduced without creating too much chaos in the results.
By mixing up wagon rut results with open path results, Google would present a broad result set that would help a rational person find the specific information that the person is looking for.
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Best Backpacking Stove
Weight, reliability and flame control determine whether people like a stove. The SVEA 123 and Optimus 111 Hiker stove are all-time favorites for reliability but are often criticized for being heavy. MSR stoves like the Whisperlight, Dragonfly or XGK are lighter but their large number of moving parts and o-rings leads to constant failures and maintenance in the field.
The sphere should hold enough gas for three days of camping. Ideal for a 2 day weekend trip with one day to spare. A larger bulb could be screwed on for larger group use.
Here is my recommendation on how to make the lightest most reliable stove. Start with the basic concept of a SVEA 123 using a brass burner, internal wick, self cleaning jet and fuel cap / pump attachment.
Begin by getting rid of the brass windscreen. Next remove the brass fuel storage / stand. Instead replace it with a round brass sphere that incorporates the fuel cap. A sphere will hold more fuel for a smaller amount of material and will sustain greater pressures with thinner metal because of the round shape. Additionally, if you turn a SVEA 123 over, you will see that the bottom is actually concave to withstand the pressure. This adds extra weight, and makes the stove bigger for a smaller amount of fuel.
Here is how the guts of my new stove would look.
Here is how the guts of my new stove would look.
Ideal Backpacking Stove
The sphere should hold enough gas for three days of camping. Ideal for a 2 day weekend trip with one day to spare. A larger bulb could be screwed on for larger group use.
Now build a lightweight cage around the stove to hold the pots as well as provide a windscreen. The center stove would be attached to the cage spring like connectors. That way if the stove assembly was dropped, the outer cage would absorb the shock and the inner stove would be protected. Add little tabs to the top and the bottom of the cage to provide additional support. The tabs would fold into the cage when not in use.
Stove with Windscreen and Fill Cap with Schrader valve
The fuel cap / pump attachment / pressure relief valve should have a Schrader bicycle tube inflaetor nozzle. The pump on an MSR stove is the weakest link and should be eliminated. By moving to a Schrader valve, you can get the entire bicycle industry to start developing lightweight pumps. Each pump is interchangeable and the bicycle gear heads will have a field day. Win / win for both industries. Don't forget to add a small chain so you do not lose the cap.
The standard way of lighting a SVEA 123 is by holding it with your hands to warm it up until a little gas spills out and then lighting the gas. In cold weather, you may not want to take your hands out of your gloves to touch a cold metal stove. This is where the pump comes in handy. Another alternative is to use a small cup on the end of a little stick. Unscrew the fuel cap, dip the stick into the gas and then pour it into a small reservoir in the burner head. Replace the cap, light the fuel and when the stove is hot, turn on the gas. The cup could be incorporated into the fuel control key to keep from losing it.
By using similar components as a reliable SVEA 123 but incorporating a round gas tank and light weight wind shield, MSR, Primus or Optimus could create a next generation stove that is compact, lightweight and extremely reliable. The most complicated part, the pump, could be based on the open standard of a Schrader valve allowing a large number of companies to contribute designs. With this hybrid approach, many complementary companies outside the camping world would support the new design with pumps solidifying the stove as the leader in the industry.
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Improving Home Security with your TV
When buglers are deciding what house to rob, one of the critical factors is, "is the owner home?" When you go on vacation, it is always important to have your neighbors pick up the mail and the newspapers so things do not pile up in front of your house. People also have lights on timers that turn on at night to make the house lived in. Unfortunately, setting the lights on timers can be difficult and you have to decide which lights to turn
on. A bright light only in the front room will still make the house look empty.
There is one exception to this rule and that is having a single TV on in a room. Many times when you drive by a house, the entire house will be dark except for the TV light coming from a window. This usually means someone is watching TV before bedtime. If a burglar sees the TV light, they will typically move on to the next house. So how can you take advantage of this fact?
Here is how it would work. TV manufactures should add a option to the menu that allows the TV to turn on and off for a certain time period each day. The channel could periodically change. The volume would be set at a level that is a little louder than normal viewing. If you have dish network or comcast, just leave the reciver box on for your vacation.
When a burgler drives by your home, they would see the lights flickering from the TV and hear the sound and think that someone is home and move on to the next house. Of course this would not work if your TV is in the front room visible from the street. It would work better if the TV were in a back room where no one can see who is watching the TV.
By adding a menu option that turns the TV on at specific times during a vacation, TV manufactures can create the illusion that someone is still in the house causing burglars to move to the next house. This should add no cost to the TV but should provide piece of mind to the owner.
PS. While searching for images for this article, I came across the following company that does this very task expect they sell a stand alone LED device that mimics the TV light in a room. http://faketv.com/
on. A bright light only in the front room will still make the house look empty.
TV Light coming from a window
Source: http://faketv.com/
There is one exception to this rule and that is having a single TV on in a room. Many times when you drive by a house, the entire house will be dark except for the TV light coming from a window. This usually means someone is watching TV before bedtime. If a burglar sees the TV light, they will typically move on to the next house. So how can you take advantage of this fact?
Here is how it would work. TV manufactures should add a option to the menu that allows the TV to turn on and off for a certain time period each day. The channel could periodically change. The volume would be set at a level that is a little louder than normal viewing. If you have dish network or comcast, just leave the reciver box on for your vacation.
When a burgler drives by your home, they would see the lights flickering from the TV and hear the sound and think that someone is home and move on to the next house. Of course this would not work if your TV is in the front room visible from the street. It would work better if the TV were in a back room where no one can see who is watching the TV.
By adding a menu option that turns the TV on at specific times during a vacation, TV manufactures can create the illusion that someone is still in the house causing burglars to move to the next house. This should add no cost to the TV but should provide piece of mind to the owner.
PS. While searching for images for this article, I came across the following company that does this very task expect they sell a stand alone LED device that mimics the TV light in a room. http://faketv.com/
Friday, January 27, 2012
How to increase bike safety.
The blog Lovely Bicycle has a great article on a concept she calls the Mary Poppins effect http://lovelybike.blogspot.com/2011/01/mary-poppins-effect.html. The Mary Poppins effect states that drivers will give more room to a young women riding a traditional bike with no helmet and long flowing skirt than to the same rider wearing a helmet, tight clothes on a race oriented bike. The author developed this concept when she noticed that some drivers treat her differently depending on what she is wearing and what bike she is riding. Reading the comment section of the blog, you see that several people have also confirmed the effect while.
At this point it is difficult to identify which of the factors – gender, attire or bike type have the greatest impact but there is one comment from a man that may be helpful. He states that he has observed the same effect when he wears a coat that flaps in the wind. The flapping coat and skirt may cause the bike rider to appear bigger than they actually are causing drivers to give them more room. Another theory is that drivers fear that the coat or skirt may catch on their car window and they give the biker room out of their own interests. A third theory states that the flapping causes some confusion and unpredictability.
A road bike however is the exact opposite. When you see a biker in spandex on a road bike, they ride with precision and consistency. A driver is more likely to come closer to them because the bike almost appears stationary next to the car.
Another thing to notice is that a road bike has a triangular shape with the thinnest part of the bike in the back and the widest in the front. Drivers may see the back tire and assume the rest of the bike is the same size.
Bike Safe http://bicyclesafe.com/ shows one example of how a rider addresses this problem by using a foam pool toy to show the maximum width of their bike.
If there truly is a Mary Poppins Effect, how can that concept be used to improve bike safety?
The first method is to modify bike clothes. One way to do this is to add small ribbons to the sleaves of a bike jersey. As the rider pedals, the ribbons would dance in the air and create a confusing image that should help create the Mary Poppins effect.
Another method would be to add streamers to a stick on the bike itself. Care should be taken that they are not too long so they would get caught in the spokes or brakes. Again, as the rider pedals, the streamers would fly in the breeze erratically creating confusion about the riders actual size and location causing drivers to give more room.
The Merry Poppins Effect
At this point it is difficult to identify which of the factors – gender, attire or bike type have the greatest impact but there is one comment from a man that may be helpful. He states that he has observed the same effect when he wears a coat that flaps in the wind. The flapping coat and skirt may cause the bike rider to appear bigger than they actually are causing drivers to give them more room. Another theory is that drivers fear that the coat or skirt may catch on their car window and they give the biker room out of their own interests. A third theory states that the flapping causes some confusion and unpredictability.
A road bike however is the exact opposite. When you see a biker in spandex on a road bike, they ride with precision and consistency. A driver is more likely to come closer to them because the bike almost appears stationary next to the car.
Another thing to notice is that a road bike has a triangular shape with the thinnest part of the bike in the back and the widest in the front. Drivers may see the back tire and assume the rest of the bike is the same size.
Top view of a bike. Notice the bike is thinnest in the back.
The noodle is the same size as the widest part of the bike.
If there truly is a Mary Poppins Effect, how can that concept be used to improve bike safety?
The first method is to modify bike clothes. One way to do this is to add small ribbons to the sleaves of a bike jersey. As the rider pedals, the ribbons would dance in the air and create a confusing image that should help create the Mary Poppins effect.
Streamers create confusion causing drivers to give more room.
For road racers like the one above, this ribbon would have to be small to help reduce aerodynamic drag. One option for bike commuters who do not wear tight fitting clothes would be to have a coat that has tails that are designed to flap in the wind. Remember the goal is to create confusion and make the rider look like they take up more space. Betabrand http://www.betabrand.com/ is one company that could help produce this type of clothing for daily commuters.
Another method would be to add streamers to a stick on the bike itself. Care should be taken that they are not too long so they would get caught in the spokes or brakes. Again, as the rider pedals, the streamers would fly in the breeze erratically creating confusion about the riders actual size and location causing drivers to give more room.
Of course, this does not mean you can ride recklessly. When the morning radio states that there is an accident involving car vs motorcycle. There is no doubt about who wins. The motorcyclist goes to the hospital and the car my need a paint touch up. Bicyclists suffer the same fate.
By modifying clothing to create some sort of visual confusion, bicycle clothing manufacturers can reduce the possibility of a collision between a car and the rider. The visual confusion will cause drivers to keep a greater distance between their car and the bike rider which makes for a safer bike riding expereince.
By modifying clothing to create some sort of visual confusion, bicycle clothing manufacturers can reduce the possibility of a collision between a car and the rider. The visual confusion will cause drivers to keep a greater distance between their car and the bike rider which makes for a safer bike riding expereince.
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