How People Learn

I recently started a new job and the first couple of months were very frustrating   Although I was very excited in the beginning, I soon became frustrated at not knowing my way around the company and who to call to resolve problems.  I then remembered the Situation Leadership II model that I had learned by Ken Blanchard.  The model states that people go through four stages of learning and as a manger you, should change your management style to match the stage of your employee.  First, they are excited but clueless, next, they are frustrated and lost, in the third stage they are competent but do not realize it then finally they are successful and confident.  This concept is similar to the adage about high-school students.  As a freshmen, you think you know everything but you know nothing, as a sophomore, you know nothing and you realize it.  When you are a junior you know everything but do not realize it and as a senior you know everything and you know it.

The Situational Leadership II Model

A managers style changes with the progression of the employee

Source:

As the employee progresses through the stage, the manger varies the amount of encouragement and direction.  In the beginning the employee needs little encouragement but a lot of direction.  In second stage, the employee needs clear direction as well as a great amount of emotional support.  In the third stage, the manager should provide strong emotional support but less direction.  Finally, the employee can work independently with little guidance from their manager.

This model is very similar to the concepts in the book called "Mastery: The Keys to Success and Long-Term Fulfillment  by George Leonard.  The book describes a similar pattern path that people take to reach success.  In the beginning, you are excited, then you as you begin to practice, you get frustrated because the task is hard.  If you stick with it, you become competent but reach a plateau.  Finally after months of practice, with no change in results you have a breakthrough and reach a new level of mastery.  Unfortunately, many people tend to stop at the second stage when things get tough.  Imagine the person taking up golf.  They go to the store and buy all the right clothes and the best set of clubs and after the first lesson they quit because they can't hit the ball.  Mr. Leonard refers to this type of person as the "Dabbler".  They get excited about something new and then when they realize it is hard they quit before they have a chance to develop the skill.

The "Dabbler" quits when a new task becomes too hard.

Source

So why is it so hard to learn something and why do we get so frustrated in the early stages?  The answer lies in two concepts, Muscle Memory and Procedural Memory.  When you first start to do a task like swinging a golf club, you brain needs to direct every muscle in your body involved with the task.  At the same time your brain is recording each of the actions.  With so many things going on at once, there are bound to be problems and you rarely hit the ball in a straight line.

With consistent practice, your brain records the movements until they become second nature.  You can then perform the task without thinking.  Over time, your brain has literally become rewired.  It is this rewiring process that causes so much pain and frustration.  The same thing happens with Procedural Memory.  When you drive the same route to work, you brain creates an internal map.  After several weeks of commuting, you can leave your office and arrive home and not recall where you have been.  Your brain has been working on autopilot making turns without your conscious input.

The important thing to remember from all of this, is that it is the repetition that leads to mastery.  When you first start a task, your body and brain must focus all it's energy in order to be successful   This concentration can even be mentally and physically draining.  Without a good coach, you may fail at your task and become discouraged from trying again.  With positive feedback, your body continues to refine the model and create a stronger and stronger internal ability.  Eventually, you can perform the task without engaging your active brain and you are able to focus on higher levels of strategy to be successful.

Many products seem to ignore these stages of learning.  How many times, have you tried a recipe from a cookbook once and if it did not come out correct, you gave up?  Only by trying the same recipe several times can you become successful.  To help you along this path, products should encourage the customer to repeat a process until they have become successful.  For example, a cookbook could only have five recipes   On each page there are boxes where you can record the date you tried the recipe, how it came out and what you would do to change it next time.  After cooking the same recipe for five times, the person should be able to do the recipe without looking at the book.  There could be a series of such books. The first would be soups, the next casseroles, then breads and so on.

The smartphone is a perfect feedback system to encourage people to continue practicing a new task until they have achieved mastery.  The trick is to limit the task so the person can become successful in a small number of tries, provide some kind of feedback so the person can learn from their mistakes and to encourage the user when they are frustrated and want to give up (hint- have people upload their frustrations to a social network, it may prove very therapeutic).

By recognizing the stages that people go through when learning a new task and helping the user along the journey as their mind and body is transformed, companies can help people achieve goals that the person never thought they were capable of.

How to overcome the fear of writing

I clearly remember the first blog post that I wrote.  I agonized for hours over what to write.  I wondered how people would react.  Each sentence was examined and re-examined.  Throughout the entire process, fear prevented me from continuing.  I am writing this post during a break between meetings and it takes me a tenth of the time.  The biggest change that has happened is that I have already gone through the process of writing and posting blogs.  I know what to expect and what to avoid but most importantly I eliminated the fear associated with writing a blog post.


I faced a similar situation writing my first book.  I was not sure if it was good enough or how people would react.  However, once I published the book on Amazon, Industrial Strength Techniques for Home Organization, I realized that my fears were unfounded.  As I write my next book that will tie together much of the concepts from this blog, the writing process is much easier.  Time is spent producing content rather than agonizing over thoughts.

Many of our fear come from not knowing what will happen and our imagination creates dangers that are far scarier than reality.  Once we have gone through the experience once, we realize that most of our fears were unfounded.    Entrepreneurs also must go through the fear cycle.  The first customer pitch, the first VC meeting, the first hire.  All of these events become second nature after having experienced them once.

The trick then is to get people over the initial hurdler of an experience so that they can move on and accomplish great things.

With this in mind, how can companies like Amazon help people overcome their fear of writing?

Soft Launch:  One technique is to use a staging area where people can publish their work without exposing it to the world.  This is typically used for technical reasons to help people correct errors but it should also be used to help people overcome the initial fear of uploading their first work.  The soft launch would allow people to share their work with a small group of friends minimize the fear of public scrutiny that may stifle the creative process.

Priming:  The second technique uses priming.  When people describe how they are going to perform an action ahead of time, they are more likely to follow through with that action.  Amazon could help people create a schedule for writing the book.  To help break the project into smaller parts, people could upload individual chapters according to the schedule that they created.

Offer a Mulligan:   In golf, it is not uncommon for people to mess up their drive on the first tee.  A Mulligan is a do over and the second shot is usually much better.  Amazon should encourage first time publishers to create a smaller book or a collection of short stories.  Once people have the confidence of publishing one book, they can move on to writing their epic novel.

By understanding that first time writers often need help overcoming the fear of writing,
Amazon can take steps to minimize this fear and lay the seeds for the next great novel.

How to add more value by doing less

I was listening to Rory Sutherland on Ted Talks and he mentioned Professor Ayelet Fishback and her work on the dilution model: How additional goals undermine the perceived instrumentation of a shared path.
Here is a link to the paper: The Dilution Model: How Additional Goals Undermine the Perceived Instrumentality of a Shared Path.

In summary, this model states that if a product or service performs multiple tasks, people have a perception that the ability to perform any one of the tasks well is diminished.  The paper states the example of a coffee shop that serves both coffee and sandwiches.   Sure people may have a need for both coffee and sandwiches and it would save people time if they could buy both at the same place.  The problem comes when you ask people about the quality of the coffee.  Research shows that since the café does not specialize in coffee, people will say the coffee is not as good as specialty coffee shops despite actual quality.

This same pattern is played out in many other multi function areas.  Mr. Sutherland gives the example of the TV with built in DVD player.  No matter what the technical specs say, people will think that the combination unit must have inferior quality to stand alone units and will thus buy the parts independently.  One explanation for this bias is that people may belive that compromises are made in the design that would impact quality.  Mr. Sutherland also uses the example of Google Search.  Instead of adding the weather and news, Google Search does one thing only and this increases people’s perception of the ability to do that.

Of course a discussion like this is not complete without dragging in the leaders of minimalism; Apple.  If you look at the early iPods you will notice that they all had limited functionality but did it very well. In fact, latter versions such as the shuffle actual removed features thereby possibly increasing the perceived quality of music play back.

It is important to note that context for a product should not be ignored.  Ludwig von Mises states that it is impossible to tell the difference between the value created by the food and the value created by sweeping the floor.  In the example of the coffee shop, eliminating sandwiches would increase the perceived quality of the coffee but the ambiance of the café must also be considered.


So how can the concept of goal dilution be applied to improving product value?  The first step is to try not to be all things to all people.  Minimize the product features to the core functionality that reflects the strength of your company.  Next understand the ecosystem within which your product operates and try to fit into that ecosystem as easily as possible.  If you make DVD players understand that you need to connect to a TV to work.  In order to simplify that process, why not accept the fact that not everyone has access to the back of their stereo system and put the connections on the side.  If you are a coffee shop, make sure you are located next to a complimentary product such as bagels.

How to build a software product roadmap.

One of the biggest challenges of software development is trying to decide what features to add to particular version.  Here is a new model that will help you build a software product roadmap by considering the activities of the expected user group.  This model focuses on two dimensions of activities, the duration or time to complete the task and frequency or how often a task is performed.  Other dimensions such as task importance will be ignored for now as this model is focused on increasing worker productivity.

Typical Tasks of an MRP system

As you can see some tasks are performed frequently while others are rare but have a long duration  However, each of these tasks require resources and are an expense for a company.  Minimizing the time to accomplish these tasks will create value for a user and free a user up to focus on more strategic tasks.

It is important to make the distinction between user tasks and product functionality.  This model is focused on where users spend their time without your software.  Once the software is adopted, many tasks should decrease in duration and frequency.  At that point, new tasks will emerge as users focus on new challenges.

Once you have identified where your target users spend their time, the next step is to plot the tasks on the chart similar to the graph above.  Next, create a 45 degree line in the upper corner and then move the line to the lower corner based on the version of the software.  Tasks above the line should be included in a particular version.  Tasks below the line are reserved for future versions.  Each task should then have an associated feature that will help the user minimize the time it takes to perform the task.

This method ensures that you can provided the maximum productivity gains to users with the minimal engineering resources.  There is no sense in adding a feature if it does not solve a problem that the user encounters infrequently or can be done very quickly.

Product Roadmap that is based on where users currently spend their time.

One thing that becomes obvious in this model is the law of diminishing returns for software functionality.  After several versions, you have simplified the majority of the users tasks and it is harder to show value.  Microsoft Word is a good example of this.  The majority of tasks such as cut and paste, spell check, grammar correction and bullets/numbers were released in earlier versions.  All the future improvements are related to tasks that are done infrequently and have a short duration.

By using this model, you can focus your engineering resources on the biggest problems your customers are facing.  Additionally, this model provides a framework for discussing the activities of the users that is much better than creating a list of what you want the software to do.  If someone tries to add some functionality that is ahead of the version curve, you can give justification on why to hold off on the feature since it is ahead of the version curve.  Similarly, if any tasks is being performed by the customer is behind a particular version curve, then you need to make sure that the task is included in the next version. 

What is Cozy?

I was recently looking for the modern replacement of the the Volkswagon camper van.  I considered the Mercedes Sprinter, the Nissan NV, truck campers and truck shells.  Somehow,  nothing seemed to give the same feeling as the VW bus and I couldn't understand why.  The only conclusion that I can come up with is that the VW bus is cozy while the other solutions are either too big or too small.

Classic Volkswagon Camper Bus

http://www.outyourbackdoor.com/article.php?id=1204

Above is a classic Volkswagon camper bus.  Notice that the average person cannot stand up straight when they stand inside without the pop-top.  When you stand near the doorway, you can see the entire inside of the bus.  There is very little room to move around inside and yet the doors seem to invite you in to sit down at the table to eat.

Dodge / Mercedes Sprinter Camper Van

http://rv-roadtrips.thefuntimesguide.com/2010/02/sprinter_van.php

Now look at the Dodge / Mercedes Sprinter Camper Van. It is easy to stand up inside and walk around.  Large windows let you easily see the world.  Sure, the van is much more comfortable but is it inviting?

Classic Truck Camper

http://www.expeditionportal.com/forum/threads/41259-Camper-and-Truck-Photos/page18

Another classic is the truck camper that allows you to stand up, sleeps four and includes many of the comforts of home such as sink, fridge and stove.  However the scale is much larger compared to a person.  You need to climb up the stairs to get in. When you stand next to the camper, you can not reach the top or see inside the windows.

Fully outfitted truck shell camper

http://www.tiny-house-living.com/small-truck-camper.html

Truck shell campers like the one above offer far less space but easily fit onto most trucks.

Each of the above solutions have their purpose.  Truck shells and campers can be removed in the off-season while motor homes always include a kitchen sink but are they cozy?

I talked to a friend of mine who used to travel by overnight train with his family in India.  He said that the sleeping compartments where quite tight and that you shared the compartment with several other families.  Despite the close quarters, he met several lifetime friends on those trips and looks fondly back at those days.

One explanation for the benefits of the cozy effect is the concept of physical proximity and the Mere Exposure Effect (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mere-exposure_effect).  This states that people form stronger relationships when they have more frequent interaction with something or someone.  If you have ever spent time in a VW camper bus with other people, you know that it is impossible to move without bumping into someone else.  Of course the truck camper shell takes this idea to the extreme but there must be some limitation on how close you want to be next to someone on a continual basis.

If we are to assume that people value human interaction and that close proximity encourages human interaction, then we should also assume that people would value an environment that encourages interaction, hence our attraction to cozy.

The next step is to identify some key elements that contribute to cozy.  I propose the following:

Elements that create a cozy environment:

1. Ability to see entire space.
2. Roof height that is close to head level.
3. Forced proximity to other people.
4. Shared experience.
5. Little empty space.
6. Entrance way that starts wide and then narrows.

By incorporating these elements in automobiles or communal spaces, companies can create a feeling of coziness that customers value and are attracted to.  Once the space has been created, people will fill the space and create interactions far beyond what the company could have offered through product features.

Can you identify the Truncation Effect on your incomming inspection?

A friend of mine, Jon Glommen, was asked to review a chart similar to this during an interview for a quality position.

Incoming Inspection Data for Large Number of Parts

The histogram showed the incoming inspection data for a  large number of parts from a supplier (100% inspection).  The curve was supposed to illustrate how each part was built to spec and show that the supplier had no quality issues.  Mr. Glommen then informed the interviewer that the curve was only showing half of the picture and that the supplier was actually producing a large number of nonconforming parts which were scrapped and these costs were being passed on to the customer.

Jon noticed that the curve represented only a portion of a normal distribution.  The supplier was measuring each part at final inspection and only shipping the parts that met the required dimensions.  The remaining parts were either reworked or scrapped, both of which increased costs and delayed delivery.  Removing nonconforming data points and only showing the data that meets the specification is called the Truncation Effect.

The curve in the above picture was generated using a random set of data with a mean of 100 and standard deviation of 5.  In this theoretical example, I have set the lower spec limit at 92 and upper spec limit at 108.  This is the same as removing approximately the lower 5.4% and upper 5.4% of the curve.   In other words, the supplier would have to produce 111 parts in order to ship 100 parts.  This increases both the lead time and cost by 11%.

The histogram below is another view of the same set of data adding back the parts that the supplier had removed.

Histogram including truncated parts

This chart clearly shows the long flat tails that are typical of a normal distribution.  Using a statistical software application (JMP), I have added the theoretical normal distribution curve.  In this case, the mean is 100 and the calculated standard deviation is 4.97.  Notice how the curve closely matches the data set in this example.

Next, I calculated the distribution for the incoming inspection excluding the truncated data points.  The stats software calculated the same mean of 100 but a lower standard deviation of 3.88.  Below is the calculated normal distribution curve overlaid on the incoming inspection data.

Calculated Normal Distribution overlaid on data with the Truncation Effect

Notice that the center of the calculated curve is higher than the center points and that the edges of the curve are lower than the data points.

One method to check for the Truncation Effect is to use Process Capability Analysis.  Here is a quick overview of Process Capability Analysis.  The standard formula for Process Capability is Cp = (USL - LSL)/(6* sigma).  The Cp for the truncated data = (108-92)/(6*3.88) =0.68 which is less than 1.  This tells us that the spec width is smaller than the process width and that the supplier is producing nonconforming parts.

Why is it important to look for the Truncation Effect?
If all of your parts pass incoming inspection, you may believe that your supplier is producing high quality parts.  However when you use a histogram or Process Capability Analysis on the data you may find that your supplier is achieving the high quality by removing the non-conforming parts.

Next Steps
First, if you have observed that inspection and/or test has resulted in rework or scrap, or the distribution of incoming material indicates that truncation is occurring, then it is important to work with your supplier to identify why parts are being reworked or scrapped and to help your supplier eliminate this waste.

Second, an accurate test is needed to determine if there is evidence of truncation.  One test might measure the number of points above 10% of the lower spec limit.  If you see a large percentage of points near the cutoff, it may indicate that there is hidden waste. If you have a large amount of data, if truncation is occurring it should be pretty obvious.

Third, a method is needed to estimate the true mean and standard deviation of the population in the presence of truncation. To get this information we need to have the supplier report first time yield and final yield. In addition we need to know the test or inspection results (i.e., measurement results not just pass/fail) of all units which were sampled.

In conclusion, incoming inspection of parts from a supplier may only show that the supplier only delivers parts that meet your requirements.  Further analysis is needed to determine if your supplier has hidden waste that they are containing internally.  By working with your supplier to help minimize this internal waste, you will speed up delivery and reduce costs the of your parts because the overall yield of the supplier's process will increase.

Note: For further reading, learn about Process Capability Analysis http://www.qimacros.com/qiwizard/process-capability.html

How to Eat Less

Do you finish all of the food on your plate or are you able to stop eating even if there is still food left?  Chances are, many people will not stop eating until all the food is gone no matter how much is on the plate.  This action is logical in some cases.  Many people who grew up during the depression did not know when they would receive their next meal therefore they would eat all the food on their plate.  Other people are members of the Clean Plate Club because as children, their parents spoke of the starving people in other countries.  Luckily, food scarcity is less of a problem these day and restaurants will often serve more food than the average person should eat in a typical sitting.  So why do you still finish all the food even if you know when the next meal is coming from and how do you limit your eating to prevent weight gain?

The answer may lie in a behavioral bias called the Endowment Effect which causes people to place a higher value on things that they posses.  The Endowment Effect states that people will demand more for an object that own than they are willing to pay for that same object.  In other words, if I gave you a mug as a present, you would only be willing to sell that mug for a higher price than you would be willing to buy it for.

In the case of eating, it may be, that people are unwilling to give up the food on their plate because they feel it is theirs even when they know that they should not eat all of the food.

To break this cycle, you need to be willing to give up some food on your plate.  Of course it would be impolite to take food off of your plate and put it someplace else on the table.  However the following plate design would serve a similar purpose.

To eat less, just push some food on your plate into the "For Later" section.

At some point in your meal, simply push some food into the portion of the plate that says “For Later”.  The phrase can be interpreted different ways.  For some people, it could mean that they want to bring the extra food home in a doggy bag for a snack at home.  For others it could mean that the food they do not eat today does not increase their weight later.  Another way to view it is to give your body a chance to digest the food that you are currently eating before eating more.  Often times, the feeling of satiation or fullness takes a while to kick-in after a meal.  Pausing during the meal gives your body time to register the food you have eaten and you will find that you are really not that hungry for the remaining portion.  Either way, by pushing the food away from you, you are overcoming the Endowment Effect thereby gaining control over how much you eat.

The amount of food that you push away is not important.  In the beginning, it feels very strange, but with time, it becomes second nature.  When using this technique, you will find that you leave the table with a feeling of lightness rather than heaviness.  See a related post on ways to make you feel better after eating: http://latentvalue.blogspot.com/2010/11/how-restaurants-can-increase-value-of.html.

By designating a portion of the plate for later, people would more comfortable not eating all of the food on their plate creating a healthier balance between caloric intake and caloric needs.

Note:  There can also be other variations on what is written on the plate.  You could show a cute monsters mouth or say something like “Feed your Willpower”.